Price volatility is expected to pick up this week. First-quarter earnings season gets underway with updates expected from major banks such as JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Citigroup ($C) and Wells Fargo ($WFC). While results are expected to be fairly strong, most will be watching to see what companies say about the outlook for the current quarter and the rest of the year, given expectations for faster economic growth.
On the economic data front, U.S. consumer price inflation (Tuesday) and retail sales (Thursday) will be the biggest data points of the week.
Global financial markets will also pay close attention to comments from a Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday, for additional insight into the outlook for monetary policy in the months ahead.
Elsewhere, in Asia, China will become the first major economy to report first-quarter growth data when it publishes highly anticipated GDP numbers.
Here is what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) furthered its ascend with a gain of +2.12% (+85.5 points) for the week, establishing an all time high closing of 4,122 level. This was aligned with our weekly market analysis highlighted last week.
It is important to note that the past week of daily incremental price action on $SPX has reflected a clear Bearish Divergence with its transactional volume. A price retracement upon a eutrophic rally beyond the structure of a technical trend channel is always imminent on such scenario. However, the hypothesis of a short term correction for $SPX would remain healthy and strong for the bullish sentiment of the index.
With price volatility expected to pick up this week due to the series of major economic events, the immediate support to watch for $SPX is at 4,030 level, a trendline resistance turned support level.
U.S. 1Q Earnings Season Kicks Off
The first quarter earnings season on Wall Street will kick off in the coming week, with banking giants JPMorgan Chase ($JPM), Goldman Sachs ($GS), and Wells Fargo ($WFC) all set to release their latest quarterly results on Wednesday.
Earnings from Bank of America ($BAC), Citigroup ($C), and Blackrock ($BLK) are then due on Thursday, followed by Morgan Stanley ($MS) on Friday.
Overall, Q1 earnings are expected to have jumped nearly 25% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. That would be the biggest quarterly gain since 3Q 2018, when tax cuts under former President Donald Trump drove a surge in profit growth.
Financials are expected to show one of the biggest earnings gains, up 75.6% year-on-year, while materials are seen up 45.4%.
U.S. Consumer Price Inflation (CPI)
CPI is expected to have risen 0.5% last month and 2.5% over the prior year, according to estimates. If confirmed, it would mark the fastest increase in eight months.
Excluding the cost of food and fuel, core inflation is projected to climb 0.2% from a month earlier and 1.6% on a year-over-year basis, a tad faster than the 1.3% increase registered in February.
Rising inflation expectations helped spark a first-quarter selloff in Treasuries that drove yields to pre-pandemic highs in recent sessions.
U.S. Retail Sales
The consensus forecast is that the report will show retail sales jumped 5.5%, rebounding from February’s steep decline of 3%, which was the biggest drop since April 2020.
Excluding the automobile sector, sales are expected to rise 4.8%, snapping back from a drop of 2.7% in the preceding month.
Fed Speakers
A number of Fed speeches will get market attention in the week ahead, as traders watch for further clues on interest rates.
Topping the agenda will be remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell who will be speaking on Wednesday at an Economic Club of Washington event.
The Fed chair has reiterated lately that any emergence of inflation should be temporary and that the central bank will keep its accommodative policies in place for a long time.
China 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
China will post its first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Friday morning.
The data is expected to show the world’s second-largest economy grew 18.8% in the first three months of 2021 when compared to the year-ago period, accelerating from the previous quarter’s 6.5% pace.
Besides the GDP report, the Asian nation will also publish data on March trade balance, industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, and fixed asset investment.
China’s economy has shown signs of improvement in recent months, with activity rebounding to pre-pandemic levels thanks to a resurgence in global manufacturing and a sharp recovery in domestic spending.
